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Guerilla Investing

Tag: Laura

  • Sound Oil. Farm-in.Takeover.Consolidation.Mergers. All part of The Big Plan…

    Man with a plan. Big plan!

    A major indication of just how Sound Oil (LON: SOU) see their future dropped today via an RNS. A predatory takeover paper offer for the distressed and shockingly managed (into the dirt) Antrim Energy (LON: AEY). You’ll all know that I am a big believer with a large personal stake in the Company. I have skin in the game. I keep telling investors that the SOU story is one of success upon success, since the boy Parsons, took the helm he and the team have turned them into one of the best AIM oiler plays of recent years. Cornerstone investors, producing assets, cash in the bank, big exploration play and a flagship gas discovery (Nervesa) about to come on stream. Not forgetting that they’ve admitted they are in talks with a Global International Oil & Gas Company regarding a Major farm-in which could lead to a creeping full blown takeover at many times their current SP.

    You’ll all recall that Antrim were at one point capitalised at £250,000,000 with solid production from their Causeway asset. The board ran up huge debts on Causeway, broke all their banking covenants, Credit Suisse called in the debt and hey presto the Canadian based Board flogged Causeway in a forced firesale. To cut a long story short Antrim ended up losing Causeway for a pittance so that the Board could keep lining their own pockets. Antrim are now basically a one asset operation quasi shell valued at approx.  £5 million. 90p to 3p what a ‘performance!’ If only the Sound Oil team had been in charge then I can guarantee that Antrim share-holders would be sitting pretty on a hefty value accretive investment many, many times its current value. Instead of holding crabs.

    This is a great deal for Antrim shareholders as they get access to a balanced portfolio in Italy, production and exploration; Good management, cost synergies (Out goes the failed BOD Hooray!) and a credible growth story with a possible take out of many multiplies of the current SOU share-price; 10.75p. How does 60p ‘sound’ to Antrim energy share-holders? Because folks that’s what the potential gain is on Sound oil.  The Offer for each Antrim share, 0.3198 new Sound Oil ordinary shares values each Antrim share at 3.44p. This values the entire issued share capital of Antrim at £6.35M.

    Albert & Sound
    + Takeover of Antrim!

    As for Sound they pick up a high potential exploration asset in Ireland (diversifies pre Badile outcome) and over £10M in cash, all for just over £6M worth of paper (about 13% of the enlarged company). It’s a win, win deal for ALL stakeholders.

    Take a good look at Antrim’s management. Over the past 2 stretch, they’ve done nothing but destroy value for their shareholders through miss-management. When a Company are trading below cash value after running the sp into the dirt, then you know that it has failed miserably. President and Chief Executive Stephen Greer, ‘resigned’ his position then immediately ‘assumed’ the role of Chairman of the Board of Directors.  (Stephen Greed!) Here’s a question for AEY shareholders. How much cash did Gree(r)d get from AEY upon his resignation? Was it 1 years’ salary? 2? 3? Because I can tell you this he got a hefty settlement! Now he gets another chunk of the Antrim cash as the Chairman! What an absolute disgrace.

    The Antrim Corporate troughers whose egos destroyed Antrim, have failed to respond to the Sound Oil offer, are the very same who f**ked up the Company for their own shareholders. While raking in millions upon millions in fees for themselves. They live in Canada! They’re detached from their own share-holder base. Proven corporate failures only interested in lining their pockets with what little money is left.

    The combination of Sound Oil and Antrim as an entity will have a nice balance of assets, be focused entirely on Europe while being well funded and should be interesting to institutions given the increased scale. It’s a win, win deal for all stake-holders. Consolidation is in the air I expect that Antrim are not the only company that Sound are targeting. There’s more to come. Watch this space.

    As most know we do not give buy, sell or hold recommendations on Guerillainvesting, much preferring for people to research for themselves to make up their own minds. However rules are there to be broken. If confirmation was ever needed for a stock to be in your portfolio then todays RNS was it. Buy SOU up to 16p and hold.

    Viva

    Dan

  • Sound Oil Tight Lipped & Nervous on Nervesa.

    More gas on the way. More cash on the way!
    More gas on the way. More cash on the way!

    Sound Oil (LON: SOU) have been quietly going about doing the business in Italy.  The share price hasn’t really done any thing other than mainly stay static. 10.5/11p. It’s actually maintained a stable holding pattern considering the oil price has plummeted, while news has been sparse. The strength of the Company fundamentally and asset wise is reflected by the stability in the share-price. Every thing is now lined up. Cornerstone investor, two producing assets, cash revenue coming in, Italians (ex-ENI) all in place on the Board, Italian bureaucracy, streamlined, High net worth’s involved, Nervesa about to be drilled, Cash in the bank, basically debt free. Lot of maneuvering  has gone on to get Sound oil to this place in time. Lift off is here.

    When I say ‘sparse’ I mean the Company are deliberately tight lipped. Always a sign that they’re sat on price sensitive news and don’t want a leak to ‘outside of the tenters’ such as yours truly.  A communications lock down means they’re ‘nervous on Nervesa.’

    Albert & Sound
    About to go ballistic

    There’s a lot of news about to come through as they gear up for what the Company describe as  ‘an exciting period of back-to-back drilling’, which commences with site operations at Nervesa in a matter of  a few weeks or two. News has reached the blog that all is on track for a major  announcement over the coming week/s. Just what that is, isn’t known. But it’s almost certainly good news, bearing in mind that the flagship asset, Nervesa  is about to go ‘operational’. Once this is announced then it’s game on for the sp. It will begin to climb. I expect the sp to double in value from where it currently stands. Then we have news on the exploration play that is Badile. A massive gas play that would catapult Sound oil into the arms of a major international oil company, never to be seen again. Gone, taken over for the good of Italy.

    I’ve been trying to get an interview with the boy Parsons (CEO), the man’s a difficult fish to land. Particularly as he’s a frequent flyer, flying back and forth across Europe. Last spotted having a cappuccino with an Italian energy minister.  We’re not supposed to know that! It’s no wonder that Continental Investment partners (Sounds’ ‘cornerstone Investor’) have agreed to throw more cash into the hat via one of their affiliated partners Greenberry S.A. It’s money for jam for them. They know (Unlike most) that they’re going to get a hefty return on the investment. Nervesa remains a Major project for Sound Oil with an estimated NPV10 of circa US$66,000,000 million (100%). Which will probably rise.

    Tight lipped.

    I’ve been keeping my eye on Italy news wise. The Italian oil and gas permitting process has now been cleaned up making life a lot easier re’ the permitting process. This was announced back in late August of this year by their Prime Minister.

    Remember Nervesa is a huge gas discovery, once it comes on stream the sp should be transformed. It can only go one way. UP↑. Even as the oil price struggles Sound will reap huge benefits from Nervesa which is as those in the know know, gas, which is as those in the know know, highly sought after in Italy. Premium prices being paid.

    Not so ‘tight lipped’

    According to one recent article “Italy is the new Texas.” With over 40 small to middle oil companies on the verge of unlocking proven oil/gas resources. Sound Oil being one of them mentioned in the same article as? ENI!

    Happy Days

    Dan

     

  • Sound Oil The Swiss are coming!

    More gas on the way. More cash on the way!
    More gas on the way. More cash on the way!

    For all those familiar with the Sound Oil story here’s a quick update.

    There’s a Swiss clock ticking over at Sound Oil (LON: SOU) Hot off the press and following on from the James Parsons & Director Luca Madeddu UK private investor share-holder get together, after their successful presentation at the 67th Oil Barrel, news is coming through on BMD’s black telephone that there’s a secret, yes secret, private international investor presentation in the pipeline (at the request of an Institution) to be held some where in Europe. It’s all very ‘hush, hush’. So keep it quiet. We don’t want questions raised such as? ‘Why are international investors desperate to get there Swiss franc into Sound Oil just before a potential official farm-in RNS? Do we?

    These are not UK investors these are Swiss by birth. Are they private Bankers, Chocolatiers’ or makers of Swiss army knives? We don’t know, but what we do know is that It would seem this could be tied to an impending big news release on a potential International Oil Company farming-in to the huge exploration play that is Badile. This farm-in could be a Company Maker and when announced will push Sound oil stock like a juggernaut

    The early bird catches a Swiss Roll….

    Viva

    Dan

  • Sound Oil. It just keeps getting better……

    It's logic. They're going up.
    It’s logic. They’re going up.

    I really can’t understand how investors are still remaining on the fence re’ Sound Oil (LON:SOU) who once again have just pulled a major financial rabbit out of the hat. Sound confirmed today that they have signed ‘non-binding’ terms on a €7mln reserve-based lending facility to fund its 2nd well on the Nervesa discovery, onshore Italy. Note the emphasis on “discovery”

    The proposed deal is being tabled by Greenberry SA, an affiliate of Continental Investment, Sound’s cornerstone investor, who investors may or may not recall paid a huge premium themselves to grab a 15.48% stake in SOU.

    Sound says the loan, which ‘carries a 5% annual coupon, fully funds Nervesa going forward, allows it to retain its cash balances and offers a more economic and less complex alternative to a proposed farm-in deal. Now what this means is that the Niche Group farm-in has become basically irrelevant.  It further strengthens the investment case that the Company are continuing along a path that will lead to a potential financial bonanza for those that can stay the course. Maybe this is why their Major Institutional Investor Continental has pushed Greenberry forward to take away any doubt re Niche providing funding for Nervesa. Remember Greenberry are an affiliate of Continental. Ergo Continental MUST be extremely confident on the returns they will make from these deals.

    As part of the deal Greenberry get a 4% royalty on gross revenues from the Nervesa discovery, while an arrangement fee (And this is a very interesting point) will be paid via the issue of 3.9mln shares at 16p each (25% premium to Friday’s close).

    The boy Parsons said: “This loan will be the second major investment by our cornerstone institutional investor and demonstrates the value of our flagship asset, Nervesa, which will achieve first gas in 2015.”

    Just as an aside I was going through the RNS lists on ADVFN when it struck me that each and every one of these RNS’s,  just by their headline, gives an accurate picture of exactly what is going on. http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=news&symbol=L%5ESOU

    It looks to me that the goose is being fattened up for some form of major farm-in or takeover. Which is why I will be listening into tomorrows Investor Conference Call, then making my way down/up to the big smoke for a tete a tete with the Company who are presenting at the 67th Oil Barrel Conference in London on the 25th September 2014. There are a (burgeoning) group of Private Investors & City bods who’ve managed to organise an hour with the Company at The Jugged Hare 49 Chiswell St, London EC1Y 4SA from approx. 11.40am for a general face to face chat.

    Should be interesting. It just keeps getting better…

     

    Viva!

     

    Dan

  • Sound Oil bleeps ….. radar twitch….

    It's logic. They're going up.
    It’s logic. They’re going up.

    As you all know I am a big fan of Sound Oil (LON:SOU)

    I was expecting to take part in their Conference call tomorrow but news from the Company is that it’s been delayed until 24th September which coincidently is 24 hours before Sound present at the Oil Barrel Conference.

    I will be attending the Oil Barrel & have with Doctor Holiday from the http://docslaymanschatter.blogspot.co.uk/ prescribed a 60 minute private investor tete a tete with the Sound oil team for 11.40am. I will be speaking to the “Boy Parsons” in my official capacity as “I hold a large chunk of SOU stock”. Tell me it’s going to treble!

    These opportunities do not come along very often so I’d urge any one who wants to get ahead of the game on SOU to Email: [email protected]  to be added to the meeting list.

    Now far be it for me to speculate why the attention of Sound oil needs to be somewhere else tomorrow but I do believe that there’s some good news in the pipeline which has coincided with the Conference call. There is a whisper that we will get some form of “Good News” what this will be is any ones guess. Farm-in? Farm out? Another major institution coming on Board, ENI, Edison or some other Major taking a piece of SOU?

    We just do not as of yet know. One thing is for sure there’s an RNS on the way.

    Eyes on…..

    Viva

    Dan

  • Sound Oil (LON: SOU) Einstein’s Equation….

     

    It's logic. They're going up.
    It’s logic. They’re going up.

    As promised we’ve tried to keep sourcing info’ on some of the Companies that we’ve had fantastic gains on over the last few months etc. Next up Sound Oil (LON: SOU).

    At the moment it looks like the SOU sp is in a holding pattern. No real movement either way at 12p ish. September could be a busy month for the Company. It’s been bandied around online that the CEO has been on his holidays and is now back progressing the Company. There’s plenty going on in the business behind the scenes, what with Nervesa approvals, Niche farm in, Badile farm in & whispers of Laura farm-in etc. We do know that, regardless of what SOU refuse to confirm or deny, that they are in talks with at least 2 Major oilers, on farm-in & potential takeover should they come up trumps on Nervesa, Badile, Laura etc.

    I did actually hear that some form of ‘chat’ with Rockhopper Exploration (LON: RKH) may have gone on a few weeks ago. How true this is? I’d say 50/50.  Recent news has included, the Badile land purchase & long lead items, Nervesa long lead items & well head purchase, Letter of intent with Drillmec Spa for the exclusive use of an AHEAD 375 Drilling Rig in Italy for both the SMG and Laura wells, and first gas at Casa Tiberi. This points to a Company going in the right direction.

    Take a good look at the Einstein Equation pictorial. Therein lies the answer to the question we are all asking; ‘How high can they go on more positive news?’ It really is a question of perception for each individual investor. We know that Takeovers or farm-ins of Companies with world class assets, always come at a premium to the current share-price.  There are many different schools of thought. Takeover; 60p, 100p, 40p, 50p, Farm-Ins; 25p 20p, 30p, 18p. One thing is very likely, they are going up towards 20p this year.

    Do not be fooled for 1 minute by the Company line; ‘The aim is to make Sound Oil a footsie 250 Company’ This will never happen. They will, subject to continued success, be swallowed up.

    Logic should dictate your move here. Hold for Farm-In & or Takeover News in 2014.

     

    Viva!

     

    Dan

     

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