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Guerilla Investing

Tag: Rathlin

  • West Newton ‘Operational Difficulties’ Clean Up Drags On & On…

    West Newton ‘Operational Difficulties’ Clean Up Drags On & On…

    I’ve held off writing this for as long as I can too gave Rathlin  (Operator) as long as I can on the current West Newton drill, however it’s time now to update on the drill.

    It’s not going according to plan at The West Newton B-1z drill where testing operations are targeting hydrocarbons in the conventional Kirkham Abbey Formation reservoir.

    No oil has been encountered and as of this morning, no oil or gas has flowed. Rumours & sources are that drill has been beset with ‘operational difficulties’. Hence the ‘radio silence.’ Of course those involved have denied these ‘difficulties’ but I can tell you now that my sources are many and problems there are. However, ‘OP’ difficulties aren’t confirmation of no oil, gas or condensate. But they are an indication that the EWT is failing to produce what we all expect on the timeline espoused by Union Jack Oil (LON: UJO) & Reabold Resources (LON: RBD)

    It’s been 5 weeks on a six week  extended well test (EWT) that was announced on Monday 24 May 2021, when equipment required to complete and test the West Newton B-1Z well commenced mobilization to site. Reading the ‘runes’ on the delay in updating on operations is yet another ‘indicator’ there’s been difficulty. Regardless of what’s being said behind the scenes to investors by those involved.

    The problems re the EWT are undergoing standard operating procedures (SOPs) so all ‘could’ come back into kilter this week or next. As it stands the clean up, after all the procedures, continues. That’s exactly where we are at.

    There are no guarantees in O&G, there’s always hiccups, however what’s lacking here is clarity, information being deliberately withheld in the hope that we get the result we all deserve, ‘Hail Mary’ comes to mind. In the real world you tell it as it is. Especially to your base investors/traders. Obfuscation shouldn’t be used by listed companies.

    So, I’m now calling on both listed companies and their Nomads to RNS exactly what the situation is and what operational  activities have thus far been used. It was perfed weeks ago, various nitrogen lifts,  acid washes and now a pump on, all of that is in the public domain via various watchers who regularly visit West Newton. I also note that the RBD share price, and to a lessor extent, UJO, has began to fall. That’s an indication that those in the know, usually indirectly, are selling down.

    Both companies should immediately update the market to level the playing field.

     

    Viva

     

    Dan

     

  • West Newton Update: 150M -350M Barrels of oil/gas?

     

    The West Newton discovery is now on track to be the largest UK onshore discovery since 1973,  (Wytch Farm). This is huge, of National importance to the UKs energy security. The B-1Z well encountered a gross 62 metre hydrocarbon bearing reservoir interval in the primary Kirkham Abbey target formation, as of now the declared ‘scores on the doors’ are an oil/gas column of at least 118 metres, significantly exceeding previous observations.

    Lot of information will start to filter through over the weeks and months, the difficulty is that you have to sort out the wheat from the chaff. The big question is how does this latest discovery convert into barrels of oil? That’s the question yet to be officially confirmed. But make no mistake Rathlin and the partners have done the calculations. As soon as production casing has been run then I’d expect news. Possibly even before..

    However sources, indicate that the West Newton players believe that the oil/gas in place will significantly increase. Reservoir/accumulation on this discovery all but nails it! When company’s tell you that they’re sat on the biggest onshore UK discovery since Wytch Farm then I’d tend to believe them!

    The range of the barrelage, which is obviously unconfirmed and subject to all the usual caveats as per my last article, is 150M BOE up to 350M+ BOE. Now regardless of where the needle eventually settles those numbers are phenomenal. 

    As for will it flow? Does a bear shit in the woods? Enhanced porosities of over 14%. observed on wireline logs, says it will. Plus I’m hearing that this discovery is more oil than gas. 

    West Newton is a multi-billion dollar play now. So expect some predatory action round about or just before Extended well testing….

     

    Viva!

     

    Dan

     

  • West Newton: Twist, Fold Or Hold?

    West Newton: Twist, Fold Or Hold?

    ** Before I give my update, there are a few things that mug punters & genuine followers, readers need to address and that is your own personal situation and attitude! If you feel at any time, ANY misgivings on any trade or investment then move on, sell up! It really is that easy! There’s no shame in selling, it’s not a ‘pissing contest’ or a game of chicken or indeed as the pump & dumpers would have you believe ‘Know The Game’. It’s not a game, (any one who tells you this should be blocked, unfollowed and ignored). Take responsibility for your portfolio. It’s your money, ultimately it’s your call. Here Endeth The Lesson….

    Twist Fold or Hold? That’s the question currently on the minds of some UK traders/investors hoping for a big Onshore UK Hydrocarbon discovery at the Rathlin operated licence, West Newton.

    As of last week numerous city sources indicated that whispers (Unconfirmed) of a big hydrocarbon discovery were circulating. I tweeted this out last week. My gut tweet etc. So it’s with a few caveats that following on from that, after more research that I’m now in a position to state that West Newton has had Major Hydrocarbon shows in the Kirkham Abbey formation side track drill. I believe that the partners may be on the cusp of finalising logs, data prior to an announcement of, potentially, one of the biggest UK Onshore Hydrocarbon discoveries.

    When I say ‘Hydrocarbon’ I state that because as good or bad as I am at sniffing out information. I don’t know what the make up is. It could be any one from 3, any two from 3 or all three i.e. Oil, Gas, Condensate. I don’t have access to Rathlins data suite…. I also don’t know when the result good or bad or confirmed either way will be RNS’d. And remember there’s always a chance, as a contact of mine said that I ‘could be wrong or am being feed horse shit, by contacts’. I take that into consideration as this has happened to me 7/8 yrs ago by Evolution Securities on Tower Resources. There’s always risk regardless.... There’s no certainty until it’s in an RNS.

    But I do know 99% that the West Newton result is now known by the Operator, Rathlin and in my opinion it’s coming in!

    Make your decision/s based on your situation, don’t come howling to ‘Yours Truly’ if it comes in or doesn’t. Or if share prices rise 300%-400% and you miss it or you don’t…. Contrary to pithy epithets, Fortune doesn’t favour the brave and He who dares doesn’t always win! He who knows the outcome does!

    Twist, Fold or Hold!

     

    Good Luck

     

    Dan

     

     

  • West Newton. The Reality Is It’s A Billion Dollar Oil Discovery. Clarification For The Morons.

    West Newton. The Reality Is It’s A Billion Dollar Oil Discovery. Clarification For The Morons.

    To hold or not to hold? That’s the question being asked by share-holders of Union Jack Oil (LON: UJO)  & Reabold Resources (LON: RBD). 

    There’s been a lot of piss & wind posted recently on the, Rathlin operated, West Newton major oil & gas discovery. The key to investing and even trading is to pick your entry and your exit, based on what you know as opposed to what’s being eternally spouted on social media. There’s one twitter lunatic who seems to think (Wrongly) that UJOs’ head honcho is responsible for putting in the HSE, O&G paperwork as well as ordering all the capital equipment for the imminent drill/s and any delay is their fault.

    Oil & gas drilling by its very nature is bureaucratic. It’s the Operator Rathlin who lodge ALL West Newton applications. Partners have a non operated interest.  If you have any doubts on your trade/investment in any company or in any sector then sell up and move on. It’s as easy as that. Get out, there’s no shame in selling.

    Yesterdays Rathlin update was forced due to the amount of erroneous speculation circulating on social media. 

    “Rathlin Energy (UK) Limited, as operator of the West Newton A-2 well, is providing the following update regarding the Extended Well Test.

    Preparations for the retesting of the well are progressing both from an operational and a regulatory standpoint.

    Coordinating the availability and timing of services, equipment, personnel and other aspects of operations with the requirements of our regulators is imperative.

    These activities and approvals are often dependent upon one another.

    Rathlin Energy (UK) Limited will provide operational updates via this website when appropriate.

    Kind regards

    THE RATHLIN ENERGY (UK) LIMITED TEAM”

    So with the above in mind, here’s exactly what’s going on. The Extended Well Test and site mobilisation are a matter of days away. All equipment has been sourced with a date pencilled in for the EWT, and the drilling by Rathlin of West Newton 2B could happen in concert or be very close behind the EWT. One rubber stamp is awaited from the EA. That application, according to my sources, went in last week. The usual turnaround from the HSE/EA is 14 days. So my ‘back of the fag packet calculations‘ are end of this week beginning of next. Site mobilisation and EWT are imminent. Don’t be fooled or get caught out. When the news drops the SPs are only going one way. 

    Reabold and Union Jack are fully funded for at least 18months, both have paid up in advance. There should be no placings in 2020. Especially UJO whose asset/production base are all UK onshore. Onshore drilling, compared to offshore, is way, way less expensive.

    There are at least 2 oil predators awaiting the EWT oil flow results. That means that if it flows, as expected, from the  60,000,000+ boe then there’s a real possibility, depending upon how far West Newton 2B has progressed, that the asset will be bought out by either one or both Majors in partnership, circling.

    Share-holders of both listed companies need to remember that West Newton is a billion dollar oil play:

    A major UK onshore Oil & Gas discovery has already been called by the companies. It’s of National importance and as such oil minnows or their interests get swallowed up. That’s how it works in the oil sector.

    Any investor thinking that Rathlin will remain the operator of a Major UK O&G discovery are in ‘la’ la’ land’. An offer or offers will come. That’s a given. Of course oil has to flow. There are only 2 companies i’m invested in: Reabold & UJO. That’s because both have exposure to West Newton. I’m not looking at any of their other assets regardless of how good they maybe. It’s all about West Newton for me. All the companies involved are convinced that (barring a major onsite explosion or a military takeover of the UK) oil will flow. It doesn’t get any better than that…..

    Viva

     

    Dan

     

  • West Newton. 140,000,000 boe. UK Onshore Major Oil Discovery On Steroids!

    West Newton. 140,000,000 boe. UK Onshore Major Oil Discovery On Steroids!

    .

     

    (It’s taken so long to source & firm this up that I’m amazed it’s not already leaking)

    Last Wednesday I was in London on a ‘hush hush’ mission to glean information on Companies that I’m interested in. Doesn’t matter if it’s negative or positive, occasionally the ones you think are negative can turn positive and vice versa. For me it’s all about beating the corrupt corporates and telling it as it is. Good or bad….

    Most of the meetings I attend are pre-arranged, some times, like the NUOG lunch, crossed wires conspire and the meeting/s get missed. It’s no ones fault, that’s just the way it goes. But that missed opportunity was filled by two hastily arranged ‘coffees’. One with the current FCA registered SER Director (Mike) and the other with an official (Nomad) whose company represents one of the two London listed oil company’s with an interest in West Newton.

    Being a ‘cautious’ type I chose not to immediately write up my West Newton scoop from the second of those two unconnected ‘tete a tetes’ until I could make enquiries with different sources to ‘cross reference’ and firm up what I was being made aware of. Kind of test the water etc. That’s now been done. Several unconnected sources from London and Canada all confirm.

    Once again ‘yours truly‘ delivers to you a massive exclusive on Rathlin’s West Newton drill. The drill that has already been declared by the partners as a ‘Major Onshore Hydrocarbon Discovery’.

    News leaking on the West Newton Discovery indicates that all partners are ‘cock ‘o’ hoop’ on the data sets and core analysis from the operator Rathlin. There’s been an enforced blackout and much debate within the group/partners on keeping the numbers unannounced until all the core analysis has been completed. This could be because there are persistent whispers of at least two majors sniffing about.

    The scores on the ‘Oil No’ Doors’ are way above expectations. That news is now in and should be released immediately by the partners, especially as it’s now in the public domain, post the publication of this article.

    So you can take it from me that news is on the way from the Rathlin, West Newton drill, that could result in a huge, and I mean huge, increase in the share-prices of both listed companies who have a stake in West Newton. (0.92p) Reabold Resources (LSE: RBD) who now own 59% of Rathlin which equates to a 39% interest in West Newton and (0.22p) Union Jack Oil (LSE: UJO) who have a direct 16.6%.

    The ‘Oil in Place’ numbers from the analysis of the core samples has rocketed upwards and will indicate a minimum of over 140,000,0000 boe (barrels of oil equivalent). The high case is thought to be close too, if not over, 200,000,000 boe. Both Nomads have been briefed as have the O&G Authority.

    If those numbers are confirmed and I’m 99% certain they will, then the SP of both companies should rise significantly, regardless of talks that may or may not be happening. I’d expect on these figures, coupled with a successful Extended Well Test (EWT)  share-prices of multiplies on both London listed company’s. These numbers indicate one of the biggest onshore hydrocarbon discoveries in the UK.

    Knowing Nomads as I do, from my short tenure at Sefton, you can bet your last shekel that emails will be flying back and forth on publication of this article.

    Which means that an announcement is imminent.

    Good Luck

     

    Dan

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