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Guerilla Investing

Tag: Union Jack Oil

  • West Newton ‘Operational Difficulties’ Clean Up Drags On & On…

    West Newton ‘Operational Difficulties’ Clean Up Drags On & On…

    I’ve held off writing this for as long as I can too gave Rathlin  (Operator) as long as I can on the current West Newton drill, however it’s time now to update on the drill.

    It’s not going according to plan at The West Newton B-1z drill where testing operations are targeting hydrocarbons in the conventional Kirkham Abbey Formation reservoir.

    No oil has been encountered and as of this morning, no oil or gas has flowed. Rumours & sources are that drill has been beset with ‘operational difficulties’. Hence the ‘radio silence.’ Of course those involved have denied these ‘difficulties’ but I can tell you now that my sources are many and problems there are. However, ‘OP’ difficulties aren’t confirmation of no oil, gas or condensate. But they are an indication that the EWT is failing to produce what we all expect on the timeline espoused by Union Jack Oil (LON: UJO) & Reabold Resources (LON: RBD)

    It’s been 5 weeks on a six week  extended well test (EWT) that was announced on Monday 24 May 2021, when equipment required to complete and test the West Newton B-1Z well commenced mobilization to site. Reading the ‘runes’ on the delay in updating on operations is yet another ‘indicator’ there’s been difficulty. Regardless of what’s being said behind the scenes to investors by those involved.

    The problems re the EWT are undergoing standard operating procedures (SOPs) so all ‘could’ come back into kilter this week or next. As it stands the clean up, after all the procedures, continues. That’s exactly where we are at.

    There are no guarantees in O&G, there’s always hiccups, however what’s lacking here is clarity, information being deliberately withheld in the hope that we get the result we all deserve, ‘Hail Mary’ comes to mind. In the real world you tell it as it is. Especially to your base investors/traders. Obfuscation shouldn’t be used by listed companies.

    So, I’m now calling on both listed companies and their Nomads to RNS exactly what the situation is and what operational  activities have thus far been used. It was perfed weeks ago, various nitrogen lifts,  acid washes and now a pump on, all of that is in the public domain via various watchers who regularly visit West Newton. I also note that the RBD share price, and to a lessor extent, UJO, has began to fall. That’s an indication that those in the know, usually indirectly, are selling down.

    Both companies should immediately update the market to level the playing field.

     

    Viva

     

    Dan

     

  • Union Jack Oil. Latest Arden Research Note!

    Union Jack Oil. Latest Arden Research Note!

    This is the latest hot off the press Union Jack Oil (LON: UJO) Research Note.

    I’ve used my PDF embedder so you can scroll through it by hovering your cursor on the note.

    Enjoy the read.

    Dan

    x 

    Arden Research Note UJO
  • UJO. In Defence Of David Bramhill. CEO.

    UJO. In Defence Of David Bramhill. CEO.

    David Bramhill is one of the best CEOs out there. His integrity, honesty and genuine belief that UJO are sat on one of the biggest UK onshore oil/gas discoveries is beyond reproach. That’s a fact. You really couldn’t get a better CEO at this level.

    I spoke to a broker and an analyst this morning, their opinion is that Union Jack Oil (LON: UJO) did the right thing by placing now. They believe that if the pandemic continues to take hold, raising cash in 2021 would be difficult.  It was prudent of Bramhill to get the cash in. Ergo he did what was in the best interests of shareholders. A bitter pill to swallow but one that puts Union Jack on a firm financial footing.

    The drill rig for the West Newton discovery is imminent. Wressle should be pumping oil some time in October/November. Keddington will be worked over/drilled, BOPD will increase, Biscathorpe will be drilled. The company are now fully funded for at least 12 months. I don’t expect to see another placing post West Newton success and Wressle going onto production. In my opinion there should be no more placings, the proviso being success or the sale of West Newton.

    As for the ‘background noise’ out there post the Union Jack £7M placing that dropped yesterday. Lets get some facts out there. The financial BBs were awash with placing rumours a full 10 days before I managed to confirm a placing.

    Understandably people are ‘pissed’, I get that. It’s always a kicker when companies raise cash but it’s par for the course on AIM listed stock no matter how good or bad the company’s are. Regardless of who raises, by its very nature a placing usually leaks out. That’s specifically down to the broker/s running the book who in order to fill the book have to reach out to their clients and other brokers and their clients. That’s how it leaks and that’s why it was all over LSE, ADVFN, III, chat threads etc.

    Which brings me on nicely to some of the utter shite currently being posted on social media.

    The attacks on Bramhill and his company are nothing short of vile. The conspiracy theories are so wide of the mark that they’re up there with ‘Lizard People‘ controlling humanity from Mars.

    What these trolls do is to blame everyone else for their failure. How can you be sat on 50%,60%70% 80%90% profit and not derisk? If you can’t understand that then it’s easy to see why you hurl abuse. You’re not mentally adept to be trading on the AIM Casino. Better you buy premium bonds. Crawl off under your rock, leave it to those of us man enough to deal with the ups and downs of investing/trading.

    One moron who got caught holding a big chunk of shares and regularly trades in and out of UJO came up with a belter last night, told me how I’d sold at the top and bought back at the bottom ’cause I knew there was a placing. I derisked most of my UJO at the height of the lockdown pandemic/oil crisis in May, after sitting on a £30k loss I managed to basically break even. I, like you, have other financial commitments, I missed the huge rise but I don’t seek to apportion blame for my missed opportunity. It’s one that got away. No great secret and all a matter of recorded fact with UJO and my broker.

    However, inventing smears out of thin air and posting/emailing/phoning vile abuse to a 69yr old CEO at his home is a reflection on you. You really shouldn’t be trading AIM stocks. Baseless accusations of shorting, insider dealing and the calling for the jailing of the company PR girl is about as laughable and ignorant a rant as I’ve ever seen on financial BBs.

    It’s all to play for at West Newton. It’ll be interesting to see these ‘pussies’ currently howling shite, change tack should the biggest UK Onshore oil/gas discovery finally flow. Just remember who they are.

     

    Viva!

    Dan

     

  • Arden Partners Coverage: Buy Union Jack Oil: Upside 450%…..

    Arden Partners Coverage: Buy Union Jack Oil: Upside 450%…..

    As stated on twitter yesterday, I’ve managed to get hold of the latest Research Note on Union Jack Oil (LON: UJO). It’s by Arden Partners who are a ‘dedicated corporate adviser and multi-service stockbrokers’. A small outfit and themselves a listed company.

    I don’t propose to go into a convoluted epistle on the pros & cons of buying, trading, investing in UJO. I’m going to leave that to the reader of this ‘Hot Off the Press’ Research Note.

    Suffice to say it’s a buy rec’ with an unrisked NAV of 1.53p and a risked NAV of 0.55p which equates to a 450% gain from yesterdays SP of 0.10p.

    By now most of you should be up to speed on all things West Newton, Biscathorpe, Wressle, Keddington and North Kelsey. Success at the fast approaching West Newton discovery via flow test will launch the SP upwards. 

    Happy reading and good luck.

     

    Viva

    Dan

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    Disclaimer
  • West Newton. The Reality Is It’s A Billion Dollar Oil Discovery. Clarification For The Morons.

    West Newton. The Reality Is It’s A Billion Dollar Oil Discovery. Clarification For The Morons.

    To hold or not to hold? That’s the question being asked by share-holders of Union Jack Oil (LON: UJO)  & Reabold Resources (LON: RBD). 

    There’s been a lot of piss & wind posted recently on the, Rathlin operated, West Newton major oil & gas discovery. The key to investing and even trading is to pick your entry and your exit, based on what you know as opposed to what’s being eternally spouted on social media. There’s one twitter lunatic who seems to think (Wrongly) that UJOs’ head honcho is responsible for putting in the HSE, O&G paperwork as well as ordering all the capital equipment for the imminent drill/s and any delay is their fault.

    Oil & gas drilling by its very nature is bureaucratic. It’s the Operator Rathlin who lodge ALL West Newton applications. Partners have a non operated interest.  If you have any doubts on your trade/investment in any company or in any sector then sell up and move on. It’s as easy as that. Get out, there’s no shame in selling.

    Yesterdays Rathlin update was forced due to the amount of erroneous speculation circulating on social media. 

    “Rathlin Energy (UK) Limited, as operator of the West Newton A-2 well, is providing the following update regarding the Extended Well Test.

    Preparations for the retesting of the well are progressing both from an operational and a regulatory standpoint.

    Coordinating the availability and timing of services, equipment, personnel and other aspects of operations with the requirements of our regulators is imperative.

    These activities and approvals are often dependent upon one another.

    Rathlin Energy (UK) Limited will provide operational updates via this website when appropriate.

    Kind regards

    THE RATHLIN ENERGY (UK) LIMITED TEAM”

    So with the above in mind, here’s exactly what’s going on. The Extended Well Test and site mobilisation are a matter of days away. All equipment has been sourced with a date pencilled in for the EWT, and the drilling by Rathlin of West Newton 2B could happen in concert or be very close behind the EWT. One rubber stamp is awaited from the EA. That application, according to my sources, went in last week. The usual turnaround from the HSE/EA is 14 days. So my ‘back of the fag packet calculations‘ are end of this week beginning of next. Site mobilisation and EWT are imminent. Don’t be fooled or get caught out. When the news drops the SPs are only going one way. 

    Reabold and Union Jack are fully funded for at least 18months, both have paid up in advance. There should be no placings in 2020. Especially UJO whose asset/production base are all UK onshore. Onshore drilling, compared to offshore, is way, way less expensive.

    There are at least 2 oil predators awaiting the EWT oil flow results. That means that if it flows, as expected, from the  60,000,000+ boe then there’s a real possibility, depending upon how far West Newton 2B has progressed, that the asset will be bought out by either one or both Majors in partnership, circling.

    Share-holders of both listed companies need to remember that West Newton is a billion dollar oil play:

    A major UK onshore Oil & Gas discovery has already been called by the companies. It’s of National importance and as such oil minnows or their interests get swallowed up. That’s how it works in the oil sector.

    Any investor thinking that Rathlin will remain the operator of a Major UK O&G discovery are in ‘la’ la’ land’. An offer or offers will come. That’s a given. Of course oil has to flow. There are only 2 companies i’m invested in: Reabold & UJO. That’s because both have exposure to West Newton. I’m not looking at any of their other assets regardless of how good they maybe. It’s all about West Newton for me. All the companies involved are convinced that (barring a major onsite explosion or a military takeover of the UK) oil will flow. It doesn’t get any better than that…..

    Viva

     

    Dan

     

  • West Newton. 140,000,000 boe. UK Onshore Major Oil Discovery On Steroids!

    West Newton. 140,000,000 boe. UK Onshore Major Oil Discovery On Steroids!

    .

     

    (It’s taken so long to source & firm this up that I’m amazed it’s not already leaking)

    Last Wednesday I was in London on a ‘hush hush’ mission to glean information on Companies that I’m interested in. Doesn’t matter if it’s negative or positive, occasionally the ones you think are negative can turn positive and vice versa. For me it’s all about beating the corrupt corporates and telling it as it is. Good or bad….

    Most of the meetings I attend are pre-arranged, some times, like the NUOG lunch, crossed wires conspire and the meeting/s get missed. It’s no ones fault, that’s just the way it goes. But that missed opportunity was filled by two hastily arranged ‘coffees’. One with the current FCA registered SER Director (Mike) and the other with an official (Nomad) whose company represents one of the two London listed oil company’s with an interest in West Newton.

    Being a ‘cautious’ type I chose not to immediately write up my West Newton scoop from the second of those two unconnected ‘tete a tetes’ until I could make enquiries with different sources to ‘cross reference’ and firm up what I was being made aware of. Kind of test the water etc. That’s now been done. Several unconnected sources from London and Canada all confirm.

    Once again ‘yours truly‘ delivers to you a massive exclusive on Rathlin’s West Newton drill. The drill that has already been declared by the partners as a ‘Major Onshore Hydrocarbon Discovery’.

    News leaking on the West Newton Discovery indicates that all partners are ‘cock ‘o’ hoop’ on the data sets and core analysis from the operator Rathlin. There’s been an enforced blackout and much debate within the group/partners on keeping the numbers unannounced until all the core analysis has been completed. This could be because there are persistent whispers of at least two majors sniffing about.

    The scores on the ‘Oil No’ Doors’ are way above expectations. That news is now in and should be released immediately by the partners, especially as it’s now in the public domain, post the publication of this article.

    So you can take it from me that news is on the way from the Rathlin, West Newton drill, that could result in a huge, and I mean huge, increase in the share-prices of both listed companies who have a stake in West Newton. (0.92p) Reabold Resources (LSE: RBD) who now own 59% of Rathlin which equates to a 39% interest in West Newton and (0.22p) Union Jack Oil (LSE: UJO) who have a direct 16.6%.

    The ‘Oil in Place’ numbers from the analysis of the core samples has rocketed upwards and will indicate a minimum of over 140,000,0000 boe (barrels of oil equivalent). The high case is thought to be close too, if not over, 200,000,000 boe. Both Nomads have been briefed as have the O&G Authority.

    If those numbers are confirmed and I’m 99% certain they will, then the SP of both companies should rise significantly, regardless of talks that may or may not be happening. I’d expect on these figures, coupled with a successful Extended Well Test (EWT)  share-prices of multiplies on both London listed company’s. These numbers indicate one of the biggest onshore hydrocarbon discoveries in the UK.

    Knowing Nomads as I do, from my short tenure at Sefton, you can bet your last shekel that emails will be flying back and forth on publication of this article.

    Which means that an announcement is imminent.

    Good Luck

     

    Dan

  • Reabold Resources ‘Project Wallace’

    Reabold Resources ‘Project Wallace’

    Tip: I often see and hear this: "Know The Game". Let me tell you something, anyone who consistently espouses this shite is 'at the bollox'. Investing/trading at any level isn't a 'game'. It's deadly serious. Those that tweet, podcast or write such shite are in the main Pump & Dumpers, who'll say and do anything to manipulate small cap' micro stocks. Using a whole host of anonymous twitter, BB accounts, DMs, Private chat, phone calls and email groups. It's easy to ramp telling 'porky pies' about crap companies you're taking kickbacks from or dumping shares into the ramp. Silence is better than bullshit.

    What isn't easy is getting your hands on quality information. Base your strategy on well sourced information. Remember losing several thousand pounds for most of us has financial consequences. Rather than know the 'game' 'Know Their Game'. Here endeth the lesson...

    There’s no a hard & fast rule, in the not so glittery world of financial commentary, but occasionally one has to make a ‘judgement call’ in the interests of transparency for shareholders, traders and investors who’re all too often kept in the dark, when really companies should be reaching out to their shareholder base and the wider market, instead of skulking around behind the ‘corporate curtain’, raising cash. 

    Some financial placings actually have merit and one, if given the chance, can see the raison d’être or not. Which brings me on nicely to “Project Wallace”. Documents now in my possession confirm that Reabold Resources (LON: RBD) basically think that they’ve hit the ‘Oil Jackpot’ at the West Newton drill site.

    Project Wallace is the corporate (Stifel) Institutional overview/pitch of all licences held by Reabold, with summary’s pertaining to each of their licence holdings: Reabold California (USA), Rathlin/West Newton (UK),  Danube Romania,  Corallian (UK)

     

     

    For the purposes of this blog post I’m specifically concentrating on the West Newton/Rathlin transaction that can be summed up as thus: “$29m investment for $274.4m of additional value” which doesn’t take into account the potential value/oil from the Cadeby oil play which has a further value of $850m NPV (gross). The proposed placing price was 1.2p. That may have changed post the ShareProphets scoop and RNS confirmation. We’ll know soon enough. For those of you who wish to read the complete unabridged Stifel overview there’s a ‘Click Me’ button at the bottom of this post.

    It’s glaringly apparent that RBD and their partners believe that West Newton is a major onshore oil/gas discovery that will flow oil & gas and could net well in excess of $1,000,000,000 at $11.50c net back based upon as yet the unpublished CPR and the volume-metrics that will soon be released. The Extended Well Test is due Q4 2019, which means West Newton is gearing up, news should start to drop next few weeks or so….

    To me it looks to be the ‘real deal’ based upon what’s been going on behind closed doors however ‘Caveat Emptor’ always applies. It’s not in the bag until it’s in the bag. RBD will be fully funded with an increase in West Newton which is basically their crown jewels. UJO are already fully paid up for the EWT and have £2,600,000 cash at hand, they’ll probably sell out after the oil/gas flows. It’s known that Bramhill (CEO UJO) has consistently rebuffed offers of financial backing from several institutions.

    So, how much O&G is there? We’ll get an idea once the CPR/Volume metrics are released which should come pre EWT. A 65 metre hydrocarbon column in the Kirkham Abbey is in itself a company maker. Add in the Cadeby and it’s probably the best O&G play on the London Stock Exchange. Especially since all the Major holders have all basically ‘sold off’. That brake has gone. Expect TR1s with the inevitable deceitful ones double speaking trying to talk both companies down. Par for the course, i’m afraid.

    Once oil/gas flows at West Newton then RBD could hit in excess of 5p and UJO anything up too 2p. Of course it’ll be a bumpy ride with many peaks and troughs but that’s again ‘par for the course’ in the Oil Sector. So, now we ALL know the facts on West Newton and the proverbial playing field has been levelled. Courtesy of Dan! The Man! Whose got no hair but doesn’t care LOL!

    Good Luck

     

    Viva!

     

    Dan

  • West Newton. Oil Discovery Briefed To The Corporates Behind The Scenes.

    West Newton. Oil Discovery Briefed To The Corporates Behind The Scenes.

    Some times, in life, one scratches the ‘proverbial’ head. trying to understand the mechanics/reasons of companies listed on the London AIM. AIM is an incubator where companies list in-order to grow into fully fledged self sustaining profit making business’s. Part of that process involves the timely release of  market sensitive information. There are numerous valid reasons why such information is withheld. But holding back material price sensitive information from retail investors while at the same time furnishing that information to ‘selected’ Funds, Brokers and Analysts isn’t one of them. Neither is withholding  RNSable information from retail investors so as not to upset or appease protesters!

    Documents seen by ‘Yours Truly’  on West Newton state that the “initial well results and gas discovery are ‘Outstanding”. With “25 metre net pay gas which is likely to be upgraded to 300bcf” The whole report reads like a lottery win.

    Cores taken from the Cadby Reef are “Oil Saturated”. Raithlin and partners are quoting a “40 Metre Net Oil/Condensate column” just under the gas cap, with an expected “70-100 million barrels from the 40 Metre Oil/Condensate column”.

    One has to question why this information has been given to Corporates and not the retail hoards? Why has none of the above been explained via RNS?

    Further down in the report it states thus: “Due to the environmental sensitivities <sic> from the operator (Raithlin) regarding the Oil Discovery <sic> high alert from the anti-frac contingent”

    It really does take the biscuit when corporates are being briefed behind the scenes of an OIL DISCOVERY let alone a Gas Discovery, while the great unwashed are left in the dark to scrabble around trying to read the runes.

    How many investors have sold out on the lack of news flow in RNS’s? Every thing I’ve read in this report has been supplied to the corporates by Raithlin and the partners, yet, I challenge any one to find that information in the RNS’s of Reabold Resources (AIM: RBD), Union Jack Oil (AIM: UJO) or by Raithlin. Yet this ‘Privileged Information’ has been supplied freely to the corporates by the Operator and the management teams of their partners. And these fookers are targeting “a 3x return on 0.25p initial investment”

    The playing field should be level. Certain groups shouldn’t be briefed while others are kept in the dark.

    We ALL now know. Those behind the scenes believe, there’s an Oil Discovery underneath the Gas Discovery on site at West Newton. (The Gas Discovery itself is a company maker). So, with the well about to be ‘perfed’ tomorrow & Tankers on standby isn’t it time both listed partners coughed up exactly what they’ve been telling Corporates behind the scenes?

    Your duty is to your shareholders not a rag, tag, bag of anti-frac protestors who regardless of what you try to do would still be there. 

    Potentially The Biggest Oil, Gas & Condensate Discovery in 50yrs, second only to  Wytch Farm.

    Of course there’s always a risk regardless, it’s O&G, but knowing what’s being quoted by the corporates gives us all a better understanding when it comes to making our decisions. Information is key….

    Viva!

     

    Dan

     

     

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